Nepal Will Be an Aging Country within 30 Years: The Impacts Explained
Nepal is becoming an aging country. Learn about the challenges, rising elderly population, and why urgent policy changes are needed for a secure future
1. Executive Summary
Nepal is moving steadily toward becoming an aging society, and urgent attention is needed to address the rising old age population in Nepal. As the proportion of old age Nepali citizens grows, there will be increasing demand for better old age facilities in Nepal, including healthcare, social care, and safe housing. Currently, support systems like the old age allowance Nepal are in place, but these will need to expand significantly.
Comparing older age in Nepali society to global trends shows that Nepal must prepare early. Data like the average age of menopause by country and age by country demographics highlight how Nepal is aging faster than many other developing nations. While traditional care by families has long been the norm, there’s a rising need for more formal support structures such as old age homes in Nepal.
Proactive planning and investment in elderly care, policy reforms, and inclusive economic strategies are essential to ensure that Nepal’s aging population can age with dignity and security.
2. The Current Population Structure
According to the 2021 census, Nepal’s total population was 29.2 million, and the National Statistics Office estimates it has now reached 29.8 million. The population growth rate is 0.92%. A recent report shows that the elderly population in Nepal has increased almost threefold since three decades ago.
Looking at global trends, it is projected that by 2050, one in six people worldwide will be 65 or older. By that time, the average global life expectancy is also expected to rise to over 77 years.
Our contribution will empower Elderly People In Kathmandu
3. An Aging Country - Nepal in Three Decades
A population expert warns that Nepal will become an aging society within the next 30 years. If we don’t make significant policy changes in the next 30 to 40 years, the country could face serious social and economic problems.
While a growing older population and a shrinking younger population are seen as a normal part of development worldwide. However, expert’s caution that Nepal, still is lagging towards greater development and wealth, will be significantly affected.
A recent report from Nepal’s National Statistics Office predicts that by 2111 BS (2055 AD), Nepal will have older people than young people. This prediction is based on the 2078 BS census.
The reality is that Nepal is already becoming an older society. Over 10% of the population is now older than 60, and more than 6% is older than 64.
In the next twenty years or so, the number of older people in Nepal is expected to double. At the same time, the number of people of working age (between 15 and 60 years old) is likely to continue to decrease.
4. Window of Opportunity: Few Decades
There are still a few decades left where Nepal can benefit from its current population structure. Currently, about two-thirds of the Nepali population is of working age, and this situation is expected to last for some time.
Population expert Professor Yogendra Gurung explains, “The time to benefit from our current population is running out. Our population is in a good state now, but this opportunity will only be around for another 30 to 40 years.” He also notes that just a few decades ago, 40% of Nepalis were under 15, but now that number has fallen to 28%.
Professor Gurung adds, “Even now, around 65% of Nepalis are in the working age group (15-64). The number of people older than 64 is still relatively small, at about 6%. This gives Nepal a unique chance right now. Soon, there will be fewer working-age people and more people needing support. So, we should start changing our policies now. If we can effectively use the two-thirds of our population who are of working age, our economy has the potential for rapid growth.” National Statistics Office spokesperson Dhundi Raj Lamichhane agrees, stating, “To be precise, we have about 27 years to make the best possible use of our young workforce.”
5. Consequences
Experts say that changes in the structure of Nepal’s population will lead to significant economic and social impacts.
Spokesperson Lamichhane points out, “The increasing number of older people also indicates that overall healthcare is improving. Because of this, we will need policies that focus on the needs of senior citizens in the future.” He also notes that older people are likely to live alone. “We need to ensure older people have social security, healthcare, and proper care. Nepal already spends over one hundred billion rupees annually on social security programs, including the old-age allowance.”
This spending is expected to increase significantly in the future. Therefore, experts suggest that it would be wise to keep older people involved in small ways to earn money. One possible solution is to rise the retirement age. Currently, government employees retire at 58. Professor Yogendra Gurung explains, “Thanks to improvements in healthcare, many people can remain active well into their 70s and 80s. The fact that the average life expectancy of Nepalis has now increased to 71 years is another reason why we need to reconsider the retirement age in government jobs and other sectors.”
Professor Gurung further states, “From an economic perspective, it would be beneficial to keep trained workers employed for a longer time, as significant investments have been made in their development.” He also emphasizes that increasing the age for receiving social security benefits is equally important.
6. References
- https://www.bbc.com/nepali/articles/c4g2n1xx94no
- National Statistics Office, retrieved from https://nsonepal.gov.np/
- National Population and Housing Census 2021, retrieved from https://censusnepal.cbs.gov.np/results
- Population Projection for Nepal2021-2051, retrieved from https://censusnepal.cbs.gov.np/results/files/result-folder/Population%20Projections%20for%20Nepal.pdf
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